What are the political, legal, economic and social factors that could best support the country’s autonomy and sovereignty in the digital technology sector, while at the same time paving the way for greater capacity and presence for Italian industries in international markets? And what are the factors that could slow down, if not completely hinder, these prospects? The answers to these questions, and valuable guidance for policymakers, stakeholders and operators in the national innovation ecosystem, can be found in Industry Competitiveness 2035, a report produced by the Observatory on Supercomputing Trends and Applications, a project of the ICSC – National Research Centre in HPC, Big Data and Quantum Computing managed by IFAB – International Foundation Big Data and Artificial Intelligence for Human Development, in collaboration with Futures Platform. The result of innovative research, the document explores how artificial intelligence and its enabling technologies will transform the competitiveness of medium and large Italian companies by 2035. The report does not merely imagine the future, but provides a strategic tool to guide innovation, preparation and collaboration between public and private actors in the new European technological scenario, in which ICSC plays a leading role in Italy and Europe.
A foresight methodology for competitiveness
The research is based on Futures Studies methodologies, applied in a pioneering way to an industrial ecosystem usually focused on the infrastructural aspect of new technologies.
Through a workshop administered to a select group of international experts from both academia and industry, and thanks to the facilitation of Futures Platform specialists, four possible future scenarios were produced, each characterised by peculiarities, threats and opportunities.
The techniques used included Horizon Scanning activities aimed at identifying significant phenomena and trends relating to research demand. These phenomena were grouped into change drivers. The experts were then asked to prioritise only two issues, which were then used to generate two key drivers – general factors that determine future developments. Specifically, socio-economic competitiveness and technological independence and sovereignty were chosen.
These two key drivers were combined in a 2×2 Scenario Planning matrix, generating four alternative visions for 2035. Each scenario was described in terms of opportunities and threats, with respect to strategic themes defined in advance by the research group, such as changes in HPC and Cloud infrastructures, expected impacts of EU investments in AI, public-private & private-private partnerships, and skills development in relation to the transformation of the labour market.
Strategic issues identified
Despite the soundness of the method and the wealth of results, the research has revealed some areas of structural uncertainty, which today constitute the central issues of Italian and European technological competitiveness:
- Uncertainty about European technological infrastructure: fragmentation and dependence on external suppliers raise questions about digital sovereignty and the ability to maintain a competitive advantage in the long term, as well as the issue of the regional technology gap. Risk-V, IT4LIA, Fondazione Chips-IT, EuroHPC JU, Quantum Flagship and ICSC – National Research Centre for High Performance Computing, Big Data and Quantum Computing have been identified as important players in achieving European infrastructure sovereignty.
- Regulatory frameworks as a key factor for competitiveness: if harmonised, European regulations can foster innovation and attract talent; but if they remain complex and inconsistent, they risk hampering the competitiveness of Italian companies. In this context, initiatives to harmonise and support the implementation of the AI Act, including regulatory sandboxes, are relevant.
- Attracting and retaining talent: the ability to retain specialist skills is a cross-cutting priority. However, the question remains as to how much Italian companies can directly influence this factor, given the global dynamics of the labour market.
Read and download the report: http://osservatorio.supercomputing-icsc.it/tech/industry-competitiveness-2035-2/
